What a week that was..! I didn't see that one coming – well, yeah I did a bit but still. If the world economy was a duck it would be floating upside-down in a pond with its wee flappy flippers twitching in the air. Gordon Brown seems to be loving it though... I mean – even though he was the one who proclaimed the end to 'boom and bust Britain' who in their right mind is going to vote for the smug, self serving, slimy, spakka that is David Cameron – yeah, like "he'll save us", "he looks good in a crisis" – Jesus wept!
I've worked in many shady industries – but at present I work in the 'financial sector' and I program computers. I would like to make it clear that I have never understood what the fuck the traders make their decisions on. It makes absolutely no sense to me... if you want to earn money then, like me, you go out and work for it don't you? How can you make money out of thin air and out of speculation – where does it come from and where does it go?
It seemed obvious to me that the whole economy was overvalued (I think I mentioned it in a May post 'the sound of ideologies clashing'). The value of my property has been steadily rocketing for years – although inflation has not... so – do the sums!? I recall that when the boom in the housing market started there were plenty of dark warnings from the maverick street preacher economists... they were right and nobody listened. They remembered the 80's.
To everyone else it was all as 'safe as houses'… I think not.
I remember, a few years back, talking to one on my friends, a fellow gooner who is in the same industry as me – although he is more involved in the analytics of speculation rather that the compliance and risk aversion side of the business (that I work in)... he told me that his job was to work with huge databases and program pattern matching algorithms to pick out tradable 'causalities' or markers to give 'an edge' to their traders. He told me, over a pint, that they had identified a small company in Cornwall that made egg-cups (or some shit) and its stock performance had exactly mirrored, with one week's prescience, one of the major blue chips for the entire history of the data they possessed – to him this was like finding the Holy Grail.
The exact causality could never be identified simply because it didn't exist – i.e. if you get 10,000 people all flipping coins there is a probability that 2 of them will flip the same sequence... for a time – it can be viewed as synchronicity or apophenia... depending on your level of sceptisism. The problem is that there are many 'edge finding' software developers and databases out there; and I would be pretty sure that they are all involved in the same fantasy and are finding very similar edges of 'prescience'.
This edge then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and the 'accuracy' of the edge is amplified by the associated movement on the stock in question... so much so that it is feasible, through over analysis, the blind trust in the software and the complete lack of common sense that an egg-cup manufacturer in the craggy end of Cornwall can virtually dictate the stock price of a completely unrelated and much larger entity– synchronicity mutates to economic causality... madness; and has literally nothing to do with the price of fish... or puffins!
You may as well use a crystal ball, astrology and/or tarot cards!
Still – what in fucks name does this have to do with football and Arsenal?!
Well... it seems that since the collapse of the Icelandic economy one of our neighbours: West Ham, are utterly fucked... West Ham took our cherry at the Grove – but they also smashed a toxic lasagne'd up Tottenham into 5th place in the final game of the season... good times bad times... although now it's only sad times:
Whammy 1: West Ham lost their sponsor XL and had to play with stickers on their kit to cover up the logo... it would seem that this was a marker on how tight the purse strings were – I mean, how much would it cost to get a new strip made without 'XL' on the front? They now, due to the lack of a suitable matching fabric and/or a suitable solvent to remove the XL sticker have got the local dry clearers to iron on numbers instead.
Whammy 2: West Ham's is owned by Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson of Landsbanki (now in receivership) - XL were also invested in by Landsbanki and Straumur (owned by Bjorgolfur's son). XL has gone bust, Landsbanki has gone bust – anyone for a game of dominos?
Whammy 3: Sheffield United are going to sue the arse off West Ham over the Carlos Tevez transfer debacle. Sheffield United's players will then sue for whatever is left of the tattered remains of West Hams arse.
It's pretty much accepted fact now that West Ham will go into receivership and have to sell everyone and everything... nice! Hmm…what are the relegation odds?
There are other teams out there whose rectums are also getting a little bit twitchy... Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool strike me as obvious examples:–
Chelsea as they are reliant on one oligarchs 'good will' to keep them from going immediately bankrupt... A Chelsea fan told me that technically they were in the black as the stadium was 'prime real estate' – FFS... ok when Abramovic fucks off you can stick some luxury flats there then and all your problems are solved! Christ!
Manchester United as deep in the hole of debt and are currently relying on winning competitions to service their interest charges – Leveraged buyouts are great in boom times but a bit of a disaster in bust times... I would think that a few jewels are going to have to be sold in order to balance the books this season i.e. Ronaldo to Real Madrid – despite SAF's Canutesque declarations of "we're not a selling club" I think he knows the score. Schuster certainly knows the score with this telling quote:
I've worked in many shady industries – but at present I work in the 'financial sector' and I program computers. I would like to make it clear that I have never understood what the fuck the traders make their decisions on. It makes absolutely no sense to me... if you want to earn money then, like me, you go out and work for it don't you? How can you make money out of thin air and out of speculation – where does it come from and where does it go?
It seemed obvious to me that the whole economy was overvalued (I think I mentioned it in a May post 'the sound of ideologies clashing'). The value of my property has been steadily rocketing for years – although inflation has not... so – do the sums!? I recall that when the boom in the housing market started there were plenty of dark warnings from the maverick street preacher economists... they were right and nobody listened. They remembered the 80's.
To everyone else it was all as 'safe as houses'… I think not.
I remember, a few years back, talking to one on my friends, a fellow gooner who is in the same industry as me – although he is more involved in the analytics of speculation rather that the compliance and risk aversion side of the business (that I work in)... he told me that his job was to work with huge databases and program pattern matching algorithms to pick out tradable 'causalities' or markers to give 'an edge' to their traders. He told me, over a pint, that they had identified a small company in Cornwall that made egg-cups (or some shit) and its stock performance had exactly mirrored, with one week's prescience, one of the major blue chips for the entire history of the data they possessed – to him this was like finding the Holy Grail.
The exact causality could never be identified simply because it didn't exist – i.e. if you get 10,000 people all flipping coins there is a probability that 2 of them will flip the same sequence... for a time – it can be viewed as synchronicity or apophenia... depending on your level of sceptisism. The problem is that there are many 'edge finding' software developers and databases out there; and I would be pretty sure that they are all involved in the same fantasy and are finding very similar edges of 'prescience'.
This edge then becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and the 'accuracy' of the edge is amplified by the associated movement on the stock in question... so much so that it is feasible, through over analysis, the blind trust in the software and the complete lack of common sense that an egg-cup manufacturer in the craggy end of Cornwall can virtually dictate the stock price of a completely unrelated and much larger entity– synchronicity mutates to economic causality... madness; and has literally nothing to do with the price of fish... or puffins!
You may as well use a crystal ball, astrology and/or tarot cards!
Still – what in fucks name does this have to do with football and Arsenal?!
Well... it seems that since the collapse of the Icelandic economy one of our neighbours: West Ham, are utterly fucked... West Ham took our cherry at the Grove – but they also smashed a toxic lasagne'd up Tottenham into 5th place in the final game of the season... good times bad times... although now it's only sad times:
Whammy 1: West Ham lost their sponsor XL and had to play with stickers on their kit to cover up the logo... it would seem that this was a marker on how tight the purse strings were – I mean, how much would it cost to get a new strip made without 'XL' on the front? They now, due to the lack of a suitable matching fabric and/or a suitable solvent to remove the XL sticker have got the local dry clearers to iron on numbers instead.
Whammy 2: West Ham's is owned by Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson of Landsbanki (now in receivership) - XL were also invested in by Landsbanki and Straumur (owned by Bjorgolfur's son). XL has gone bust, Landsbanki has gone bust – anyone for a game of dominos?
Whammy 3: Sheffield United are going to sue the arse off West Ham over the Carlos Tevez transfer debacle. Sheffield United's players will then sue for whatever is left of the tattered remains of West Hams arse.
It's pretty much accepted fact now that West Ham will go into receivership and have to sell everyone and everything... nice! Hmm…what are the relegation odds?
There are other teams out there whose rectums are also getting a little bit twitchy... Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool strike me as obvious examples:–
Chelsea as they are reliant on one oligarchs 'good will' to keep them from going immediately bankrupt... A Chelsea fan told me that technically they were in the black as the stadium was 'prime real estate' – FFS... ok when Abramovic fucks off you can stick some luxury flats there then and all your problems are solved! Christ!
Manchester United as deep in the hole of debt and are currently relying on winning competitions to service their interest charges – Leveraged buyouts are great in boom times but a bit of a disaster in bust times... I would think that a few jewels are going to have to be sold in order to balance the books this season i.e. Ronaldo to Real Madrid – despite SAF's Canutesque declarations of "we're not a selling club" I think he knows the score. Schuster certainly knows the score with this telling quote:
"I think this year it will be a little complicated for his club to hang on to him."
I think that the price will come down considerably too... it's a buyers market and cash is the only king with any say on which way the tide will flow.
Liverpool... I am not sure about Liverpool – they have no money and have quite sensibly kept a tight leash on transfer dealings. They have shelved their stadium plans but I do worry about the solvency of an entity that's secured against a loan with the RBS (they took a proper pounding on Friday due to some creative accountancy issues) – so it would seem to me that if RBS were to foreclose to raise funds (which is their right) then Liverpool would have to find another investor... not easy in these times – unless it's middle eastern oil money that you are after... Liverpool fans will always pack the stadium though – so they are not in as bad shape as Chelsea and Manu.
The other knock on effect of the 'credit crisis' is that the massive amounts of extra revenue in the game are going to decline as the plastic fan tightens his faux leather belt... i.e. Setanta/Sky subscriptions... how much a month? Season tickets... again – how much (and the Nuevo Manu fans also have to add this with the travel costs of travelling from anywhere but Manchester). So will TV revenues drop and who will that hit?
Of course I have to mention Arsenal here as we have been slung into this argument of the 'big 4' debt. The difference is that our debt is for the new stadium – it's an asset that generates revenue and the debt itself is well serviced by the club in a very conservative way – for instance we only have to get into the Champions League once every 4 years to keep our heads above water – and most of the Highbury square development have been sold/signed already... I'm not saying it's not going to be tough – and Wenger (the one in which we trust) saw the hard times coming and invested in a youth policy that is bearing fruit just when we need it... we don't need a transfer budget as we have ready made home grown talent just waiting to break through and we are well placed to ride the storm.
Last laugh anyone?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Daydream Believer
Sent: 13 October 2008 09:59
To: DogFace
Subject: RE: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
They so deserve to be booed!
-----Original Message-----
From: DogFace
Sent: 13 Oct 2008 09:48
To: Daydream Believer
Subject: RE: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
Ha – I'm glad you noticed... hate to say I told you so!
Yeah – the proper fans are remarkably astute when it comes to the game they love... they know what they are seeing.
Here's a rundown on the obvious big bets in order of stake:
England/England HT/FT = lost
Theo Walcott (To Score First) = lost
Theo Walcott (To Score) = lost
England Clean Sheet = lost
Wayne Rooney (To Score) = won
England (To Win) = won
Wayne Rooney (To Score First) = lost
Hat Trick scored = lost
So... I reckon it was quids-in for the bookies on that one! Walcott was pretty much cut out of the game after showing his intention to score as many as possible... I even think that the commentator mentioned it (i.e. the lack of service to him) which is rare as most of them have sidelines with Ladbrokes and therefore are the worst sources of disinformation out there.
It will be a slightly different story, I think, with Belarus on Wednesday as, although they are still rubbish, they aren't the bunch of jokers that Kazakhstan are; and qualifying for the World Cup is the main priority i.e. it's a massive pay-day for all concerned… the bookies in association the more creative players, the breweries, the replica shirt manufactures, the face paint makers and the little plastic flag sellers... still – you never know though, if Hleb isn't playing it might be more of the same!
I can't wait!
:-D
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Daydream Believer
Sent: 13 October 2008 09:25
To: DogFace
Subject: RE: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
OMG!
England 0-0 at half time, zero shots on goal against a keepr who couldn't save a pass back!
5 miniutes after re-start, score.
Ahley Cole lovely ball for them to get a goal and upset all the punters who placed 1,2, 3 nil.
You do have to wonder!
Do the boo boys suspect also?
-----Original Message-----
From: DogFace
Sent: 09 Oct 2008 16:50
To: Daydream Believer
Subject: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
As you seemed interested - This is quite a good article and quite revealing in terms of what I was talking about earlier:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/7656414.stm
Most of lampards passes are sideways – where as gerrard plays like he wants to win every game by as many goals as he can both first and second half... if you look at the Andorra game England threw the first half down the toilet in order to scupper the HT/FT money - I would expect more of the same agaisnt Kazakhstan.
There are other players like this too i.e. Owen, James, Terry, Crouch, Ferdinand – who don't seem to try very hard in certain games… this is the real reason why England will never get past the semi final in any competition – the bookies would stand to loose an absolute fortune if we actually won anything, and this is a great shame for the players who want to go out and play football for their country.
Saying that I have high hopes that Capello is no mug, do his homework and will not bring back Owen despite cries from the papers who are owned by the same company as SkyBet… if he's really smart he'll drop a few others too!
:-)
It will be a slightly different story, I think, with Belarus on Wednesday as, although they are still rubbish, they aren't the bunch of jokers that Kazakhstan are; and qualifying for the World Cup is the main priority i.e. it's a massive pay-day for all concerned… the bookies in association the more creative players, the breweries, the replica shirt manufactures, the face paint makers and the little plastic flag sellers... still – you never know though, if Hleb isn't playing it might be more of the same!
I can't wait!
:-D
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Daydream Believer
Sent: 13 October 2008 09:25
To: DogFace
Subject: RE: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
OMG!
England 0-0 at half time, zero shots on goal against a keepr who couldn't save a pass back!
5 miniutes after re-start, score.
Ahley Cole lovely ball for them to get a goal and upset all the punters who placed 1,2, 3 nil.
You do have to wonder!
Do the boo boys suspect also?
-----Original Message-----
From: DogFace
Sent: 09 Oct 2008 16:50
To: Daydream Believer
Subject: A rare bit of decent analysis in the press
As you seemed interested - This is quite a good article and quite revealing in terms of what I was talking about earlier:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/internationals/7656414.stm
Most of lampards passes are sideways – where as gerrard plays like he wants to win every game by as many goals as he can both first and second half... if you look at the Andorra game England threw the first half down the toilet in order to scupper the HT/FT money - I would expect more of the same agaisnt Kazakhstan.
There are other players like this too i.e. Owen, James, Terry, Crouch, Ferdinand – who don't seem to try very hard in certain games… this is the real reason why England will never get past the semi final in any competition – the bookies would stand to loose an absolute fortune if we actually won anything, and this is a great shame for the players who want to go out and play football for their country.
Saying that I have high hopes that Capello is no mug, do his homework and will not bring back Owen despite cries from the papers who are owned by the same company as SkyBet… if he's really smart he'll drop a few others too!
:-)
