Quids in! Although fucking Betfair didn't match all the cash on my bets in the Germany game which was my 'big earner'... grr – I'm well up, but £40 less than I would have been.
Mental note/tip: double check that your cash is matched next time.
Not a bad start... there were a few things to note though – first the ball, it did make a difference but not as much of one as I thought it might. It seems that the keepers were getting their excuses in early over that one. The ball seemed lighter and tended to sit up and invite the volley more. It also didn't move as much as I was lead to believe, although it flew pretty fast, the trajectory was true. This may be because it wasn't very windy – but if anything the keepers seemed to misjudge speed more than wobble leading to more rebounds. Look for teams belting it from the midfield (as they were) and poachers running in for the second ball.
I would say ¼ goal randomisation – if that... less as the tournament goes on and the players get used to it.
Secondly Austria weren't as shit as I thought they were – their fitness was far superior to Croatia... does this mean that Croatia is an unfit side? Yes, certainly does – but it doesn't take away from the clear fitness advantage of the Austrians. Expect a few late goals from those lads.
Thirdly, Switzerland didn't get as much from the ref as I thought they would... could just be the ref unwilling to interfere too much as he let a the tackles fly in and, if truth be told, he should have booked a few more Swiss players as they were a bit 'over enthusiastic' at times. There were also a few 'benefit of the doubt' offside decisions; but, he didn't award them a penalty for handball which he could have done if there was any major bias. Also Alexander Frei is out for the tournament which is a big blow to them.
Today's matches:
Romania v France @ Zurich
Netherlands v Italy @ Berne
I don't want to call either of these games... too many factors involved – so maybe my cash might be best left in my account.
Romania are the underdogs of the group and will need to win this match if they want to make it through the group – simple as that. France have injuries... but this might work to the advantage of France by getting some younger, hungrier players involved. Flamini could replace Viera (advantage) and Henry might not be fit (no advantage) – Henry is clearly a physical wreck with his back and nerve problems but he can pull off some sublime moments when he's in the mood... but then again – that will depend on the formation and if it suits him. Romania have Mutu who may be distracted by the fact that he owes a Russian oligarch/gangster (who's not in the best of moods anyway) 7 million quid for snorting a few lines of cocaine and getting banned... he may be out to impress, make amends – so could go either way. France also have the disadvantage of having a nutcase for a manager – apparently, he reckons that, Leo's don't make good defenders but make great captains. Firstly Astrology is utter bollocks. Secondly Gallas is a Leo (great defender and captain) as is Henry (shit defender and captain) – they share the same birthday so I'll hear none of that 'oh but Saturn was rising in your anus' shite either... bonkers!
France advantages: Experienced squad, world class individual talent, arrogance.
France disadvantages: Fitness (average age), motivation, bonkers manager.
Romania advantages: Fitness (average age), motivation (career).
Romania disadvantages: Lack of confidence.
Make your own mind up… I think, depending on the French squad selection/injuries, it might be worth sticking a quid on Romania to squeak it by a goal - 2-1, if only for the long odds... you could mitigate the risk (on a quid) with a counter (more likely) bet – but I wouldn't want to get involved. My advice is, if you must bet, go for a low stake wildcard and watch France closely to get an idea as to how they might progress.
As for Netherlands Vs Italy... hmmm. Well – Italy were never a team to come out of the blocks firing on all cylinders, they will want to play the Italian game and drag it into the second half before going for it – so might be worth getting on HT/FT with that in mind... although they will be playing 4-3-3 which might prove awkward for them. Netherlands will try and get first blood early in this – they are out-classed so the first goal will be an all-important milestone to them – like Romania, if they lose, that could be it. Italy, in return, will be looking to finish strong. Should prove for a good match!
I would call Italy – but only by a goal – maybe HT/FT - Draw/Italy. Nah – fuckit, save your cash until you see what Italy are bringing to the table. The Dutch will be a good test for them.
Again please take whatever you like from my random stabs in the dark – I only do this because I'm waiting for the season to start again and I'm bored. Also writing here (i.e. slapping my nads on the table for public scrutiny) helps me work out where my cash isn't going as most of my bets are low stakes high risk/return... I'm well up at the moment – but I'll give you odds of 1.85 that I'll be a down by the end of the tournament.
Any takers? Heh.
If you want a more informed opinion; you can get betting advice from a more reliable source (Google – "Dietrological"), those boys analyse this shit until it vanishes... if, unlike me, you've got fat wads of cash to splash – then be sure to splash it wisely!
